2024年下半年宏观经济与政策研究报告
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<h2 style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;">目录：</h2>
<h3 style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><a href="#sub_title_1" style="color: red;">1.政策研究室职责是什么</a></h3>
<h3 style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><a href="#sub_title_2" style="color: red;">2.政策研究员</a></h3>
<h3 style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><a href="#sub_title_3" style="color: red;">3.政策研究的意义</a></h3>
<h3 style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><a href="#sub_title_4" style="color: red;">4.政策研究报告</a></h3>
<h3 style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><a href="#sub_title_5" style="color: red;">5.政策研究岗位职责</a></h3>
<h3 style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><a href="#sub_title_6" style="color: red;">6.政策研究赵云博</a></h3>
<h3 style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><a href="#sub_title_7" style="color: red;">7.政策研究室主要工作</a></h3>
<h3 style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><a href="#sub_title_8" style="color: red;">8.政策研究中心是事业编吗</a></h3>
<h3 style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><a href="#sub_title_9" style="color: red;">9.政策研究所</a></h3>
<h3 style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;"><a href="#sub_title_10" style="color: red;">10.政策研究属于什么专业</a></h3>
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<h3 id="sub_title_1" style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;">1.政策研究室职责是什么</h3>
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">方钉导航</p>
<h3 id="sub_title_2" style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;">2.政策研究员</h3>
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">上半年中国经济运行特点预计2024年实际GDP增速5节奏上前高后低1)“量”的增长超预期，“价”的恢复弱于预期，形成量价背离不利影响在于，低物价预期或自我实现、公共财政收入增速偏慢、企业“增收不增利”2)在工业领域，投资>生产>销售，是价格低迷的根源。</p>
<h3 id="sub_title_3" style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;">3.政策研究的意义</h3>
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">3)房地产链条仍在探底，是需求疲软的主要原因4)消费呈分化与下沉趋势：服务消费好于商品消费，低收入群体好于中等收入群体居民收入差距缩小，但消费客单价偏弱5)外需成为中国经济的重要动能全球制造业同步复苏，中国出口增长的外需基础较好，市场份额短期内基本稳定。</p>
<h3 id="sub_title_4" style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;">4.政策研究报告</h3>
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">中国经济量价收敛的路径1)结构性产能过剩的化解正是量价收敛的过程当前节能降碳政策安排更多着眼于高耗能行业，上游有望率先出清，中下游扩产受政策支持，产能化解或有滞后2)上游“供给缩量”或将主导价格上涨，预计2024年全年PPl增速中枢在-1.3右，跌幅收窄；CPI的增速中枢为0.4温和抬升。</p>
<h3 id="sub_title_5" style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;">5.政策研究岗位职责</h3>
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">3)外部经贸环境不确定性增强，可能动摇出口链持续向好的基础下半年美国大选，特朗普当选概率不低，可能意味着“更激进的关税、更直白的对抗”4)重拾各方信心对稳定内循环至关重要私营企业更加关注政策不确定性；中美紧张关系对美、日、欧在华外资企业的影响突出；居民收入预期不稳定，且预期房价下跌，担心还贷压力偏大，“加杠杆”信心不足。</p>
<h3 id="sub_title_6" style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;">6.政策研究赵云博</h3>
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">下半年宏观政策徐徐将至1)财政：4月底中央政治局会议后，地方专项债发行进度仅有限提速，二季度财政发力依然偏慢要完成全年7.9广义预算支出增速，5-12月广义财政支出将达到12.4意味着下半年财政在经济增长中的作用或将增强，与化债的关系面临再平衡。</p>
<h3 id="sub_title_7" style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;">7.政策研究室主要工作</h3>
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">2)货币：随着美联储降息时点推后、美国经济软着陆迹象凸显，货币政策的重心需要从汇率向利率过渡，允许人民币汇率适当贬值，提升宏观调控的主动性3)财政与货币配合：市场热议央行购买国债，我们认为，财政政策的规模扩张更为关键，债券及金融市场有潜在利好，依托国债发行基础货币存在若干制度堵点，可能减少对结构性货币政策工具的依赖。</p>
<h3 id="sub_title_8" style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;">8.政策研究中心是事业编吗</h3>
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">4)房地产的政策力度有待提升：地方财政资金来源问题凸显，中央政府加杠杆的必要性增强，新一轮财税体制改革新期待5)发展新质生产力仍居首：新兴服务业成为投资中的第四极，科技创新和技术改造再贷款为高技术制造业的增长蓄力，每年超长期特别国债的支持。</p>
<h3 id="sub_title_9" style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;">9.政策研究所</h3>
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">大纲目录1、上半年中国经济运行特点2、中国经济量价收敛的路径3、下半年宏观政策徐徐将至4、中国资产追逐“确定性”</p><img src="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/d483ea8a083149f79d6bee44f0a7bfef~noop.image?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1730457040&x-signature=DfEnQyTRLi3VR779Hb0B69w74FI%3D" style="width: 100%; margin-bottom: 20px;"><img src="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/0448c26443854a61b994f1aff2d783e3~noop.image?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1730457040&x-signature=vpljSLohIQv1Cv90CJxi2VcnEiQ%3D" style="width: 100%; margin-bottom: 20px;"><img src="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/d5e062031338468f8d8be83e7fd7da2d~noop.image?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1730457040&x-signature=Vy7WGMvM3p20vp89Nlq16VIoa4M%3D" style="width: 100%; margin-bottom: 20px;"><img src="https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-6w9my0ksvp/e3834515a3e44d70aecb0459425c0e6d~noop.image?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1730457040&x-signature=Hhjtif0a5vnghq8fCszrfy4ihkA%3D" style="width: 100%; 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<h3 id="sub_title_10" style="text-align: left; margin-bottom: 10px;">10.政策研究属于什么专业</h3>
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 40px; text-align: left; margin-bottom: 30px;">方钉工社</p>
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